There is a perennial debate on whether free will exists or not. Rather than going into the arguments about its existence, let's take a practical point of view. For a moment, keep aside the question of its existence and see if it really makes any difference if exists or it does not. We do not really know if everything in this world is predetermined. On the other hand, we also do not know if the world is just a random occurrence of events. But let's take both the cases and see if free will has any role to play in either case.
Case 1: The world is deterministic. Everything that has happened in the past and will happen in future is predetermined. Clearly, if everything happens according to predetermined things, free will is just an illusion. There is no free will that case.
Case2: The world is just a random occurrence of events where past events have no links to the future events. If that is the case, no matter what you do, the outcome is just going to be a random event. Even if you decide to do something consciously, it is not going to affect the outcome anyway. Therefore, even if free will exists, it has no efficacy.
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In case of case2, my 'free will' will have some efficacy if the events take place randomly but with a certain probability distribution. The probability distribution will make my free will effective over n-number of events
In case of case2, my 'free will' will have some efficacy if the events take place randomly but with a certain probability distribution. The probability distribution will make my free will effective over n-number of events
Your argument is based on the assumption that the universe is either entirely deterministic or entirely random. It may very well be the case that it's a combination, comprising of deterministic and random "domains". In such a case, my actions will have deterministic outcome, if executed in a deterministic domain. Like you noted, it's a separate issue whether free will can exist.
@ book keeper : Probability is a bitch. For a single event, probability is meaningless. What do you do with the statement "Probability of raining today is 0.6" ? Nothing; for the simple reason that the above statement simply says "given the same climatic and other conditions, out of infinite number of similar situations it will rain 60% of time". Therefore, when you have to take a decision about a particular thing, there is no use of probability.
@ Outputstream : For the following argument I assume you have a decent amount of knowledge regarding trees :). (Pardon me if I make mistakes in details because two years of MBA has ruined my knowledge about graph theory :) )
Consider a decision tree. A node represents the state of being and and arc leads from one node to another as a result of certain decision.
Now, if there is exactly one arc going from one node to the other then that is the deterministic decision. Therefore, no matter what you do, you are still going to land up on the same node. If there are multiple arcs going from one node, then it constitutes what you call "random" domain. Again, being random, no matter what decision you take, you are still not sure which node you will land up in. (Kind of a Non-deterministic Finite Automata)
Case 1 - The dispute lies in what is termed as a "free act".
If deterministic, Future = f(past, present state, laws of the Universe).
Believers in free will agree that actions of an individual are causal. But the causality depends on laws of the universe, and not other persons and hence 'free'. Free will is the hypothetical ability to choose differently if one were 'wired' (had different desires) differently.
A non-believer would say that these desires are not ours to govern and hence not free.
So some may think that you have the free will to accept a believer since that is a choice based on your desire, while some may say that since your desires are functions of the past, you are 'destined' to reject a believer, and hence have no free will.
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